Since my purchase of Bumi Armada two days ago, CIMB came out with a downward revision of the target price of Armada from 70 sen to 30 sen. If the summary that TheStar is made correctly, I feel that it is weird that CIMB has taken the probability of a right issue to be called by Armada at 70% and it will stay status quo at 30%. Hence, based on that probability the analyst downgraded the call to 30sen.
First of all, if ever Bumi Armada is doing a cash call through rights issue, there should not be a revision in target price as a rights is a new call altogether. It should not affect the price unless, he is really looking at short term and not fundamentals. Secondly, as seen from his detailed analysis, he did a very thorough sum of parts analysis on the company identifying and valuing all the projects - after which he put a discount to the value - which to me is correct. However to put a weightage on the rights call probability and reduce the target based on that does not come from the "valuation book". There's no CFA that teaches that.
It additionally says that because Armada is contemplating to bid for new projects, hence it will need rights issue call. Again, the fact that Armada is looking at expansion by itself is not a bad thing, in fact it is a good thing.
Thursday, February 21, 2019
Tuesday, February 19, 2019
Buy Armada, Sell Gamuda
For the last 1-1/2 months, Bumi Armada has been a highly traded stock, which is probably unusual considering that it used to be a Composite stock. On a daily basis, its volume can go as high as 500 million stocks traded, i.e. almost 9% of its 5.871 billion issued shares. This shows that there are a lot of traders and speculators with probably syndicates involve in the stock.
When this happens, usually the fundamentals are out of whack. At the moment, there is a tense situation concerning its short term fundamentals and among the analysts even they could not agree closely on the valuation of the company among themselves. The UOB Kay Hian analyst gave a 10sen valuation for Bumi Armada whereas the CIMB analyst gave a 71 sen valuation for the company.
Basically, for me if the UOB's valuation is correct it basically can almost call for bankruptcy or almost liquidation for the company as one of the major concern for Armada is its short term liquidity.
I had written a piece on the stock, and I have less fear over its short term liquidity. I think it is something that can be addressed, which is why I am more inclined towards the analysis provided by CIMB. Hence, I have made a 25,000 units purchase of Armada for the fund and at the same time Sold Gamuda. If one can remember, when I bought Gamuda few months ago, it was also probably out of whack in terms of its pricing for a very good company. The almost termination (underground portion) of MRT2 for Gamuda caused selldown on the stock. It was lingering at around RM2.30 to RM2.45. Now it has gone up and I am taking profits although I do think it will continue to go up.
At the moment, in my opinion, many of the stocks are attractive hence giving me difficulties to pick stocks. With Bumi Armada, I am taking opportunity of its volatility and selldown which I think is wrongly sold especially when it has become a traders stock.
I think over the long run, it will readjust itself, hence I decide to take a small purchase of the stock.
When this happens, usually the fundamentals are out of whack. At the moment, there is a tense situation concerning its short term fundamentals and among the analysts even they could not agree closely on the valuation of the company among themselves. The UOB Kay Hian analyst gave a 10sen valuation for Bumi Armada whereas the CIMB analyst gave a 71 sen valuation for the company.
Basically, for me if the UOB's valuation is correct it basically can almost call for bankruptcy or almost liquidation for the company as one of the major concern for Armada is its short term liquidity.
I had written a piece on the stock, and I have less fear over its short term liquidity. I think it is something that can be addressed, which is why I am more inclined towards the analysis provided by CIMB. Hence, I have made a 25,000 units purchase of Armada for the fund and at the same time Sold Gamuda. If one can remember, when I bought Gamuda few months ago, it was also probably out of whack in terms of its pricing for a very good company. The almost termination (underground portion) of MRT2 for Gamuda caused selldown on the stock. It was lingering at around RM2.30 to RM2.45. Now it has gone up and I am taking profits although I do think it will continue to go up.
At the moment, in my opinion, many of the stocks are attractive hence giving me difficulties to pick stocks. With Bumi Armada, I am taking opportunity of its volatility and selldown which I think is wrongly sold especially when it has become a traders stock.
I think over the long run, it will readjust itself, hence I decide to take a small purchase of the stock.
Wednesday, February 13, 2019
MMHE: A quarterly report which is not worth reading
MMHE, a 66.5% owned subsidiary of MISC which in return is a subsidiary of our largest corporate, Petronas just reported a poorer results turning in a net loss of RM25 million for the 4th quarter from profits a year earlier. I do not invest into MMHE and I just would like to know the trend of the business. However to my dismay, it is not worth reading. Just see below from its financial performance announcement.
What do we learn from this reporting? Nothing. I can get this done by a trainee employee, and I would not be satisfied.
MMHE has 9 directors and I am sure professionally hired management but when can we expect professionally provided report?
MMHE has 9 directors and I am sure professionally hired management but when can we expect professionally provided report?
Sunday, February 10, 2019
Not all Oil and Gas companies are made the same
I have been reading this week's Edge which discusses about Scomi and the challenges that it faces. Under the title "Scomi Group on the Brink", it highlights the predicament that the group is facing as well as giving us an account of its colorful past where it was a vehicle controlled by Datuk Kamaruddin Abdullah, the son of Malaysian 5th Prime Minister, Abdullah Badawi. Of course, the best period experienced by Scomi was when Badawi was PM. After that, it was downhill for the company.
This gives us a lesson and remind us that it is hard to evaluate O&G companies. Why? To me, many O&G companies in Malaysia need a different type of business connection and it is hard to make out their actual strengths and capabilities. That we have seen - the best opportunity for several of the sons of Malaysian PMs to become successful in business is through this sector. It has been proven before.
Whether they are capable business, it is hard to read. This sector however does allow people whom have connections to either our country's oil business, the federal or state government to succeed. O&G is quite a unique business where in many countries, the assets are state owned. This is similar in Malaysia where the asset is owned by Petronas and ultimately the PM's office control.
This was especially so when oil touched $120 per barrel and at that period Petronas was probably more relaxed in developing Malaysian O&G companies. When oil comes down to $60, it will be a different story. I believe Petronas will be more careful. At this period, it will be the time to separate the boys from the men, as someone would say it.
As an investor, it is important to figure out and try to eliminate what is investible and which one is potentially high risk. The retail business is investible and those include PDB and Petron. Then there are the equipment suppliers, companies like Wah Seong, Favelle Favco. Dialog is another one where they have made it successful in the business and they are proven company.
Then there are those that very hard to read, in terms capabilities especially to our Malaysian service providers which largely only supplies towards local projects. Those include Carimin, Perisai, Perdana Petroleum, Dayang, Icon Offshore and few others.
There are several companies that have made it overseas. Those include Yinson, Bumi Armada, Sapura Energy, Wah Seong, MISC. These are the companies that will provide a good basis for us to make our study as this is an international business and the ones that are able to compete internationally shows their competitiveness. The ones that have more than 80% of their business dependent on Malaysian contracts is just too risky.
The recent rise among O&G companies brought back an early exuberant towards the sector but we must be able to separate which are capable to compete and which ones are not. What has not really happened and to my disappointment is the lack of consolidation among the companies. There have been very little M&As within the sector and I feel that there are just too many companies. Although there will be natural attrition, the amount of consolidation is just too few.
I do think that while there seems to be a pick up in the sector, many of these companies will still find it hard to make ends meet. A run through of what the companies say in terms of prospects for 2019 and near term just shows that the good old days are far and between. It is true though that many stocks have touched their all time low. These provides huge opportunities.
To understand the sector, it is not just about how many contracts Petronas can dish out as I believe they are also very careful nowadays. It is about geopolitical. It is also about the politics of Trump and Saudi with Russia in the fray as well. Even the killing of Khashoggi has its impact on the price of oil. Shale from US plays a big role. How will they impact the strategy among the oil majors and OPEC? What about the global initiatives on alternative energy such as solar, electric car etc?
If one is just promoting based on how many rigs Petronas has, I think it is pure shortsightedness and not thorough in their thinking. In this space, one has to be clear on the macro as well as micro economic situation. Is Hengyuan a retailer and refiner? What would the impact of excess supply from US shale brings to their margin?
What about the companies in the exploration space? Are there new activities and are there oversupply among the players. Can I call it the buyers (companies that awards contracts) market?
There are companies that have some debt issues and such are Bumi Armada, Sapura, Perisai Petroleum, Scomi Energy. Can they overcome that? As I have mentioned, some of them are world class competitors. Will they be back stronger if ever they are able to resolve their debt issues?
Then there are some companies which have taken opportunities as they are late entrants in the business when the oil price collapse. When others were struggling with overcapacity and debt, they had just raised new funds and their balance sheet were fresh and unleveraged. Such companies include Hibiscus, DNEX.
All in all, during times of uncertainty there presents opportunities, but we have to be very careful as not all of them are worthwhile.
This gives us a lesson and remind us that it is hard to evaluate O&G companies. Why? To me, many O&G companies in Malaysia need a different type of business connection and it is hard to make out their actual strengths and capabilities. That we have seen - the best opportunity for several of the sons of Malaysian PMs to become successful in business is through this sector. It has been proven before.
Whether they are capable business, it is hard to read. This sector however does allow people whom have connections to either our country's oil business, the federal or state government to succeed. O&G is quite a unique business where in many countries, the assets are state owned. This is similar in Malaysia where the asset is owned by Petronas and ultimately the PM's office control.
This was especially so when oil touched $120 per barrel and at that period Petronas was probably more relaxed in developing Malaysian O&G companies. When oil comes down to $60, it will be a different story. I believe Petronas will be more careful. At this period, it will be the time to separate the boys from the men, as someone would say it.
As an investor, it is important to figure out and try to eliminate what is investible and which one is potentially high risk. The retail business is investible and those include PDB and Petron. Then there are the equipment suppliers, companies like Wah Seong, Favelle Favco. Dialog is another one where they have made it successful in the business and they are proven company.
Then there are those that very hard to read, in terms capabilities especially to our Malaysian service providers which largely only supplies towards local projects. Those include Carimin, Perisai, Perdana Petroleum, Dayang, Icon Offshore and few others.
There are several companies that have made it overseas. Those include Yinson, Bumi Armada, Sapura Energy, Wah Seong, MISC. These are the companies that will provide a good basis for us to make our study as this is an international business and the ones that are able to compete internationally shows their competitiveness. The ones that have more than 80% of their business dependent on Malaysian contracts is just too risky.
The recent rise among O&G companies brought back an early exuberant towards the sector but we must be able to separate which are capable to compete and which ones are not. What has not really happened and to my disappointment is the lack of consolidation among the companies. There have been very little M&As within the sector and I feel that there are just too many companies. Although there will be natural attrition, the amount of consolidation is just too few.
I do think that while there seems to be a pick up in the sector, many of these companies will still find it hard to make ends meet. A run through of what the companies say in terms of prospects for 2019 and near term just shows that the good old days are far and between. It is true though that many stocks have touched their all time low. These provides huge opportunities.
To understand the sector, it is not just about how many contracts Petronas can dish out as I believe they are also very careful nowadays. It is about geopolitical. It is also about the politics of Trump and Saudi with Russia in the fray as well. Even the killing of Khashoggi has its impact on the price of oil. Shale from US plays a big role. How will they impact the strategy among the oil majors and OPEC? What about the global initiatives on alternative energy such as solar, electric car etc?
If one is just promoting based on how many rigs Petronas has, I think it is pure shortsightedness and not thorough in their thinking. In this space, one has to be clear on the macro as well as micro economic situation. Is Hengyuan a retailer and refiner? What would the impact of excess supply from US shale brings to their margin?
What about the companies in the exploration space? Are there new activities and are there oversupply among the players. Can I call it the buyers (companies that awards contracts) market?
There are companies that have some debt issues and such are Bumi Armada, Sapura, Perisai Petroleum, Scomi Energy. Can they overcome that? As I have mentioned, some of them are world class competitors. Will they be back stronger if ever they are able to resolve their debt issues?
Then there are some companies which have taken opportunities as they are late entrants in the business when the oil price collapse. When others were struggling with overcapacity and debt, they had just raised new funds and their balance sheet were fresh and unleveraged. Such companies include Hibiscus, DNEX.
All in all, during times of uncertainty there presents opportunities, but we have to be very careful as not all of them are worthwhile.
Thursday, January 31, 2019
What's dangerous for 2019
The first month for 2019 is almost going to see its close. While very few of Malaysian companies have reported earnings, US companies are midway through their reporting. From my daily watching and reading, I would say it has been a mix bag. Seldom do I really follow through and be tied down to quarterly earnings. This time though, it has a sizeable threat.
CHINA! and semiconductors.
Several of the companies that are largely dependent on business from China is seeing deterioration. Companies like Nvidia, Intel, Apple, Caterpillar - they have reported earnings or guidance that seems to show that China is slowing down. All of them has indicated that their business has slowed in China. Whether this is wide spread i.e. over the entire China's economy or certain particular economy i.e. semiconductor, construction is unknown. One other factor is also because of the trade conflict between China and US, the Chinese are now being patriotic and they are preferring Chinese brands. This is seen from the market share growth of Huawei's phones as against Apple's IPhones.
However, the other two companies being Intel and Nvidia, despite the trade friction, if the demand is still there, the Chinese companies will still be buying as there are very little alternatives. Intel as we know is largely providing CPUs for PCs, servers and modem chips for Iphones. Nvidia is another chip company whose business supplies to the gamers, data centers, autonomous mobility market.
It is still hard to read how bad the Chinese economy is going to affect the world this year. There are already signals as provided by Alibaba's VP, Micheal Evans a month ago, where he indicated that volume growth has slowed. In China, many economists and businessman are already expecting slowing growth - but to how much? Will there be a recession. Official data from the Chinese government still shows growth of 6% to 7%. Is this true?
What is the impact to Malaysia
Malaysia is a huge trading partner to China especially when it comes to exporting semiconductor components to China, for them to assemble them into full product. Among the companies that exports to China via Malaysia are companies like Intel, Broadcom, Infineon. Malaysian listed companies such as Inari Amertron is a supplier to Broadcom especially for the RF filters. As we have seen, Inari has already been affected somewhat, but not massive.
What about the automation companies like Vitrox, Pentamaster? I presume as we see the trend affecting Intel and Nvidia, there is a possibility that China may see under utilisation of its capacity. With that, there are good chance that these Malaysian companies may see slower growth as well. With the threat of the trade war, many companies are also looking for alternative manufacturing sites. Vietnam, Malaysia, Indonesia, Thailand would definitely be explored. I do not see it to be immediate though as China is working on its under utilisation.
Palm Oil is in danger
The trade war also sees China offering to purchase a vast quantity of soy bean oil to make up for the trade imbalance. As it is, the details are still very vague but considering that if some agreements are to be materialised, soybean will be used as a trading commodity. What's good for soybean farmer in US will not be good for palm oil as they are substitutes. I am very wary of palm as China has not many traded goods to show to the American exporters to make up the imbalance besides cars, Boeing planes, beefs.
A slowing down China towards Malaysia
As it is, at the moment it will be hard to figure out the actual impact. I fear though that the initiatives by Malaysia government to reduce debt will not be able to materialise unless we start to sell national assets especially those held through Khazanah. The government is adamant on reducing debt. Hence, medium term i.e. for the next 3 - 5 years, we will see corporate exercise happening where these assets will be privatised.
CHINA! and semiconductors.
Several of the companies that are largely dependent on business from China is seeing deterioration. Companies like Nvidia, Intel, Apple, Caterpillar - they have reported earnings or guidance that seems to show that China is slowing down. All of them has indicated that their business has slowed in China. Whether this is wide spread i.e. over the entire China's economy or certain particular economy i.e. semiconductor, construction is unknown. One other factor is also because of the trade conflict between China and US, the Chinese are now being patriotic and they are preferring Chinese brands. This is seen from the market share growth of Huawei's phones as against Apple's IPhones.
However, the other two companies being Intel and Nvidia, despite the trade friction, if the demand is still there, the Chinese companies will still be buying as there are very little alternatives. Intel as we know is largely providing CPUs for PCs, servers and modem chips for Iphones. Nvidia is another chip company whose business supplies to the gamers, data centers, autonomous mobility market.
It is still hard to read how bad the Chinese economy is going to affect the world this year. There are already signals as provided by Alibaba's VP, Micheal Evans a month ago, where he indicated that volume growth has slowed. In China, many economists and businessman are already expecting slowing growth - but to how much? Will there be a recession. Official data from the Chinese government still shows growth of 6% to 7%. Is this true?
What is the impact to Malaysia
Malaysia is a huge trading partner to China especially when it comes to exporting semiconductor components to China, for them to assemble them into full product. Among the companies that exports to China via Malaysia are companies like Intel, Broadcom, Infineon. Malaysian listed companies such as Inari Amertron is a supplier to Broadcom especially for the RF filters. As we have seen, Inari has already been affected somewhat, but not massive.
What about the automation companies like Vitrox, Pentamaster? I presume as we see the trend affecting Intel and Nvidia, there is a possibility that China may see under utilisation of its capacity. With that, there are good chance that these Malaysian companies may see slower growth as well. With the threat of the trade war, many companies are also looking for alternative manufacturing sites. Vietnam, Malaysia, Indonesia, Thailand would definitely be explored. I do not see it to be immediate though as China is working on its under utilisation.
Palm Oil is in danger
The trade war also sees China offering to purchase a vast quantity of soy bean oil to make up for the trade imbalance. As it is, the details are still very vague but considering that if some agreements are to be materialised, soybean will be used as a trading commodity. What's good for soybean farmer in US will not be good for palm oil as they are substitutes. I am very wary of palm as China has not many traded goods to show to the American exporters to make up the imbalance besides cars, Boeing planes, beefs.
A slowing down China towards Malaysia
As it is, at the moment it will be hard to figure out the actual impact. I fear though that the initiatives by Malaysia government to reduce debt will not be able to materialise unless we start to sell national assets especially those held through Khazanah. The government is adamant on reducing debt. Hence, medium term i.e. for the next 3 - 5 years, we will see corporate exercise happening where these assets will be privatised.
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