Can I get your thoughts on NTPM? Noted the Chairman is starting to buy back its own share despite consistent selling by LTH. Appreciate some comment on valuation as well.
NTPM is a good local story. It may not be that big but the successful building of a local brand against foreign players excites me.
of course, in any business it has its challenges, but if you notice, the premier, Royal Gold, Cutie brand are one of the two largest brands in Malaysia and probably Singapore. It should not be easy for the company to build that especially against Kimberley-Clark - owner of Kleenex, Huggies.
I would think, it will continue to be a strong company. Any major drop is buying opportunities. NTPM may face some challenges in terms of costs, growth, and management team who are quite senior in terms of age. Nevertheless, the strength that it has built especially in the brand for a consumer product and distribution should be strong enough for the next gen.
Thank you for your initial comment. NTPM Q1 is making 10.213 millions. I am projecting that NTPM will make about 50 million for the full year. Last year was making 44.78 million. Traditionally, the quarter profit peak in Q3. The pulp price has been on a down trend. This should help the bottom line. Share price for forward earnings at 12xPE expected to be 0.53. Approx. 18% return, not including dividend. Appreciate some comment on valuation. Thank you!
The Q2 for NTPM is ending this month. The result is expected to be announced in Dec. If the Q2 result is at least 10.67 million or more, then there is a good chance of achieving the 50 million on full year.
Kimberly Clark is selling at a PE of 19 at the moment.
Lembaga Tabung Haji is selling down their stake since 2 years ago. Not sure why they are selling down?
Hi Felicity, would like to recommend a stock for u to analyst. the stock name Huayang. I personally think this stock good. would like to hear ur point of view. ty.
For long term investment, do you set a TP for it or purely based on condition of its fundamental? For example, airport is good for long term but in short term it may go back to 5.20 if sentiment is changed recently. Under this condition, would you still hold it or let go before it dip and buy back later. Need your opinion on this
I do not have a fix strategy but most of the time I look at fundamental. In your example on Airport - how do you know it will drop to RM5.20? I don't, hence I do not even know when to sell.
My strategy is to continue to look for great companies with good price - not overpriced
Thanks for your insightful sharing on stock investment.
Currently, I'm looking at DKSH. I found online ur article on it and realised not much analyst coverage on this stock.
Basically, I'm quite impressed by the restructuring by the Swiss owner in 2008, significantly improve the operating performance. Looking at the use of ERP and various technology, believe continue prosper.
Looking at current price of RM2.70 w the cost of RM0.80 you bought earlier, would the pice be overvalued now? at PE approx 10.
Its company gives me good feeling similar to BAT, GAB etc..professionally run MNC business in Malaysia
DRP is dividend reinvestment plan - which means that it is allowing shareholders to convert the dividend at a price of RM5.14 to new shares to be issued by the company. usually, it is worthwhile to take up the DRP as it is cheaper than the market price.
As Magni has no or little debts, and negligible minority interest, and moreover, its cash flows and free cash flows are stable throughout the years, it is a good example to illustrate earnings and cash flows of a company. The table below shows the per share earnings and cash flows of Magni from 2008 to 2012.
Year 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 Total Earnings per share, RM 0.282 0.167 0.159 0.111 0.098 0.818 CFFO 0.321 0.086 0.129 0.216 0.286 1.038 FCF 0.282 0.035 0.058 0.191 0.226 0.792 Dividend+∂Book value 0.275 0.159 0.184 0.116 0.113 0.848
Magni’s EPS grows by 30% from 9.8 sen in 2008 to 28.2 sen last financial year. The total EPS for the 5 years is 81.8 sen. The total CFFO, i.e. the actual hard cash received in the 5 years was RM1.038, 22 sen more than EPS. This is the good quality of earnings I am talking about, i.e. the earnings is translated into hard cash. The main reason is each year there is this depreciation and amortization which is non cash, but is a form of accounting cost which reduces earnings. However sometimes EPS can be less than CFFO because earnings is not realized in hard cash; debtors owe the company money; sometimes the company may have booked this “earnings” but clients may dispute it. Some companies even book doggy “earnings” like what the infamous Enron did and many companies are doing now. Often company may have to build up its inventories and hence earnings is hidden there with more inventories, but not hard cash. Too much receivables and inventories build up causes CFFO less than earnings; and too much the gap means poor quality of earnings.
To maintain its competitiveness and growth, company got to spend money for capital expenses. After doing that, the money left behind is the FCF; cash which a company can use to distribute dividend, pay down its debts, make some investments and buy back shares. With capex, company then only can maintain its earnings and grow it earnings. There is why you can see earnings of Magni keeps on growing because of the capital expenses. However, each ringgit spent in capex may not grow as much earnings. Even without growth, company still have to spend money on maintenance capex like buying new machinery to replace old ones etc. Hence according to Warren Buffet, the more important thing about a company is its ability to produce increasing “owner’s earnings”, or FCF, which Warren Buffet defines as:
"These represent (a) reported earnings plus (b) depreciation, depletion, amortization, and certain other non-cash charges...less (c) the average annual amount of capitalized expenditures for plant and equipment, etc. that the business requires to fully maintain its long-term competitive position and its unit volume”
In Magni’s case, the total Owner’s earnings for the last 5 years is 79.2 sen as shown in the table, slightly less than the total earnings. The last line in the table shows the sum of dividend plus the change in book value per share of Magni of a total of 84.8 sen for the last 5 years. This according to the presenter of the video in the following link, is a more appropriate measure for return for an investor.
Good day to you & Happy Chinese New Year. I hope the week has been good for you and family.
My name is Alex Tham, Please allow me to introduce myself, and our society (Association of Financial and Commodities Traders Malaysia ( www.afctm.org.my ) together with a Big Data Analysis Platforms (www.pickastock.info).
“Association Financial & Commodities Traders Malaysia - AFCTM” established in the year 2014, and it represents the common interests of Malaysian leading financial and commodities market participants, traders, educators to provide a collective voice on matters that support global capital markets in Malaysia. We serve as an industry coordinating body to promote continue professional learning, informed regulatory compliance, and efficient market operations and resiliency. The association is committed to promoting the interests of Malaysian Traders/Institutions “throughout the global financial markets, providing representation of these interests in the legislative, regulatory and technological usage, while fostering goodwill and high standards of integrity in accord with the Association’s founding principle: “Let’s the data tell you the facts and the truth; Let’s the info direct you the method and the solution.”
“PICK@STOCK” is a Stocks Analysis Platform developed by a group of big data analysts and software engineers that lead under AFCTM. PICK@STOCK is a technology group focused on helping ordinary investors make better investment decisions, to become more professional method to making investing simpler for nearly anybody. The platform had widely adopted big data analytics architecture and the big data has also collided with artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning, the platform creating powerful tools for investors to utilize.
PICK@STOCK uses the "Keywords" features on the website as an idea on overall market sentiment to make it easier for users to find information about several individual stocks, sectors and industries. It provides space for investors and traders to get the trading ideas, news and other financial information in real-time. User watchlist to follow certain stocks or investors to gain valuable information as can create profiles and exchange ideas. The main feature of PICK@STOCK that is "stream" consists of trading ideas, stock charts, links and other financial data.
The purpose of this email is to make an appointment with you to discuss further what we can work up together to grow and expand your blog readers.
The Initial Collaboration Proposal: 1. AFCTM Provide Pick@Stock FREE Premium ID Access (worth RM699/year) to respective Blogger. 2. Contribute Articles & Allow Upload Features for the Blogger/Author to display articles on PICK@STOCK’s website 3. Promoting Blogger Page/Facebook page on PICK@STOCK website and get more “LIKE” or followers. 4. Free customization TA chart/FA or Mix Screener based on Blogger/Author trading strategy. 5. Provide the Private Community Forum (allow the followers/subscribers exchange the trading IDEA.) 6. Become PICK@STOCK reseller and get more than 50% referral commission for lifetime.
Please let us know your most convenient time to meet up on this coming few days. We’re excited about having you together, and we look forward to your new working relationship. Please let us know on this upcoming meeting if you need any additional information for moving forward. Please WhatsApp me any time +6013 3377810. wa.link/ezgym3
Thank you for your times, and hope you continue to stay healthy.
Best Regards,
Alex Tham (AFCTM President Office 2019 - 2021) Contact Num: +60 13-3377 810 (WhatsApp) https://wa.me/message/PNPWWNUJI6LTF1
Association of Financial and Commodities Traders Malaysia. (PPM-030-14-25022014) Association Website: http://www.afctm.org.my Association E-mail: info@atfctm.org.my OR afctm2020@gmail.com
34 comments:
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2213888/Punto-Banco-Worlds-number-poker-player-wins-7-3m-2-nights-London-casino-REFUSES-pay-out.html
Genting UK give ppl win 90mil , it will hurt genting next quarter earnings bad, will u continue hold longterm?
Hi Chang
Yes, of course. This is part and parcel of its business. Kinda interesting though the article.
If I am to hold long term, news like this is part of Genting's business which it needs to deal with.
Hi Feli Cheah,
Can I get your thoughts on NTPM? Noted the Chairman is starting to buy back its own share despite consistent
selling by LTH. Appreciate some comment on valuation as well.
Thanks !
Shrobin
NTPM is a good local story. It may not be that big but the successful building of a local brand against foreign players excites me.
of course, in any business it has its challenges, but if you notice, the premier, Royal Gold, Cutie brand are one of the two largest brands in Malaysia and probably Singapore. It should not be easy for the company to build that especially against Kimberley-Clark - owner of Kleenex, Huggies.
I would think, it will continue to be a strong company. Any major drop is buying opportunities. NTPM may face some challenges in terms of costs, growth, and management team who are quite senior in terms of age. Nevertheless, the strength that it has built especially in the brand for a consumer product and distribution should be strong enough for the next gen.
Hi Feli,
Thank you for your initial comment.
NTPM Q1 is making 10.213 millions. I am projecting that NTPM will make about 50 million for the full year. Last year was making 44.78 million. Traditionally, the quarter profit peak in Q3. The pulp price has been on a down trend. This should help the bottom line. Share price for forward earnings at 12xPE expected to be 0.53. Approx. 18% return, not including dividend. Appreciate some comment on valuation. Thank you!
I think NTPM is a good buy if you like consumer stock and has a decently strong brand. At this price, it is quite difficult to find one at such PE now
Hi Cheah,
The Q2 for NTPM is ending this month. The result is expected to be announced in Dec. If the Q2 result is at least 10.67 million or more, then there is a good chance of achieving the 50 million on full year.
Kimberly Clark is selling at a PE of 19 at the moment.
Lembaga Tabung Haji is selling down their stake since 2 years ago. Not sure why they are selling down?
Hi Shrobin
Do not worry over TH selling. These funds usually do these.
In fact, if fundamental does not change much over the longer term, it is a buy.
As for Kimberley Clark comparison, the company is into healthcare as well. As such, it may not be apple to apple.
Hi Felicity, would like to recommend a stock for u to analyst. the stock name Huayang. I personally think this stock good. would like to hear ur point of view. ty.
Hi Feli,
I have been tracking MKH. The mother share seem getting really cheap after ex-rights with bonus and warrant.
Full year 2012 is making about 72 millions after tax profit.
Appreciate your analysis and view on this stock!
Hi Feli - I've previously posted on your blog as YTLP Investor.
I've recently written a short opinion piece on YTLP's value, your feedback/opinion is appreciated.
http://marketcsi.blogspot.com/2013/01/ytl-power-value-share-or-value-trap.html
Hi Feli,
For long term investment, do you set a TP for it or purely based on condition of its fundamental? For example, airport is good for long term but in short term it may go back to 5.20 if sentiment is changed recently. Under this condition, would you still hold it or let go before it dip and buy back later. Need your opinion on this
Tq
Lim
HI Jacky
I do not have a fix strategy but most of the time I look at fundamental. In your example on Airport - how do you know it will drop to RM5.20? I don't, hence I do not even know when to sell.
My strategy is to continue to look for great companies with good price - not overpriced
Sell and buyback have many times failed me...
Hi Feli,
I do not know but it depends on market. Anyhow thanks for your value opinion.
Lim
Hi Feli,
Wonder why the selling pressure for Airport is so high as it future is so good. It may go further if it break below 5.54. What do you think ?
Lim
I do not know, perhaps due to the intention of bidding for the Stansted airport with YTL...
Hi Feli,
I think you are right. Hope it can stay calm.
Lim
Hi, Felicity,
Thanks for your insightful sharing on stock investment.
Currently, I'm looking at DKSH. I found online ur article on it and realised not much analyst coverage on this stock.
Basically, I'm quite impressed by the restructuring by the Swiss owner in 2008, significantly improve the operating performance. Looking at the use of ERP and various technology, believe continue prosper.
Looking at current price of RM2.70 w the cost of RM0.80 you bought earlier, would the pice be overvalued now? at PE approx 10.
Its company gives me good feeling similar to BAT, GAB etc..professionally run MNC business in Malaysia
hi, felicity,
btw, understand that you also invest share in Euor and US market. Which platform or broker you are using?
How's the charges like?
Thnaks
I use Phillips Securities but there are better ones.
Hi Felicity,
What is DRP of MAHB mean to us with price of Rm5.14?
DRP is dividend reinvestment plan - which means that it is allowing shareholders to convert the dividend at a price of RM5.14 to new shares to be issued by the company. usually, it is worthwhile to take up the DRP as it is cheaper than the market price.
Thanks for the advice but what is the procedure to convert it?
They will send you the forms - but when was this? I did not receive any news yet on this.
Thanks
Hi, would like to seek ur comment on a stock.GCB.how do u think tis stock for its future?
What do u think of Magni?
Earnings and cash flows for Magni-tech Industry
As Magni has no or little debts, and negligible minority interest, and moreover, its cash flows and free cash flows are stable throughout the years, it is a good example to illustrate earnings and cash flows of a company. The table below shows the per share earnings and cash flows of Magni from 2008 to 2012.
Year 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 Total
Earnings per share, RM 0.282 0.167 0.159 0.111 0.098 0.818
CFFO 0.321 0.086 0.129 0.216 0.286 1.038
FCF 0.282 0.035 0.058 0.191 0.226 0.792
Dividend+∂Book value 0.275 0.159 0.184 0.116 0.113 0.848
Magni’s EPS grows by 30% from 9.8 sen in 2008 to 28.2 sen last financial year. The total EPS for the 5 years is 81.8 sen. The total CFFO, i.e. the actual hard cash received in the 5 years was RM1.038, 22 sen more than EPS. This is the good quality of earnings I am talking about, i.e. the earnings is translated into hard cash. The main reason is each year there is this depreciation and amortization which is non cash, but is a form of accounting cost which reduces earnings. However sometimes EPS can be less than CFFO because earnings is not realized in hard cash; debtors owe the company money; sometimes the company may have booked this “earnings” but clients may dispute it. Some companies even book doggy “earnings” like what the infamous Enron did and many companies are doing now. Often company may have to build up its inventories and hence earnings is hidden there with more inventories, but not hard cash. Too much receivables and inventories build up causes CFFO less than earnings; and too much the gap means poor quality of earnings.
To maintain its competitiveness and growth, company got to spend money for capital expenses. After doing that, the money left behind is the FCF; cash which a company can use to distribute dividend, pay down its debts, make some investments and buy back shares. With capex, company then only can maintain its earnings and grow it earnings. There is why you can see earnings of Magni keeps on growing because of the capital expenses. However, each ringgit spent in capex may not grow as much earnings. Even without growth, company still have to spend money on maintenance capex like buying new machinery to replace old ones etc.
Hence according to Warren Buffet, the more important thing about a company is its ability to produce increasing “owner’s earnings”, or FCF, which Warren Buffet defines as:
"These represent (a) reported earnings plus (b) depreciation, depletion, amortization, and certain other non-cash charges...less (c) the average annual amount of capitalized expenditures for plant and equipment, etc. that the business requires to fully maintain its long-term competitive position and its unit volume”
In Magni’s case, the total Owner’s earnings for the last 5 years is 79.2 sen as shown in the table, slightly less than the total earnings.
The last line in the table shows the sum of dividend plus the change in book value per share of Magni of a total of 84.8 sen for the last 5 years. This according to the presenter of the video in the following link, is a more appropriate measure for return for an investor.
Hi
It is a Berjaya group's company. Seldom do I buy any of the companies in the group. Quite bad experience.
They may have changed though...Hence, it is not just the financial numbers I look at.
Hi Feli,
Can you please share your pinion on ASIAFLE? Although the financial figures are good but the share price is sluggish for the past 3 years.
it is a good company, steady one
Hi Felicity,
Enjoy reading your blog very much. Like your analysis on Tropicana.
What are your thoughts on Waseong? Solid fundamentals and management seems good. Negatives in O&G ind seems to have discounted in price.
Thanks
Josephine
Been checking your blog pretty often loves your insights and sharings. Has been a month you have not update your blog, is everything ok there?
Hi Sir, how do you find tune pro after the release of quarterly results, 3Q18... tx
Hi, IntellecPoint Blogger,
Good day to you & Happy Chinese New Year. I hope the week has been good for you and family.
My name is Alex Tham, Please allow me to introduce myself, and our society (Association of Financial and Commodities Traders Malaysia ( www.afctm.org.my ) together with a Big Data Analysis Platforms (www.pickastock.info).
“Association Financial & Commodities Traders Malaysia - AFCTM” established in the year 2014, and it represents the common interests of Malaysian leading financial and commodities market participants, traders, educators to provide a collective voice on matters that support global capital markets in Malaysia. We serve as an industry coordinating body to promote continue professional learning, informed regulatory compliance, and efficient market operations and resiliency. The association is committed to promoting the interests of Malaysian Traders/Institutions “throughout the global financial markets, providing representation of these interests in the legislative, regulatory and technological usage, while fostering goodwill and high standards of integrity in accord with the Association’s founding principle: “Let’s the data tell you the facts and the truth; Let’s the info direct you the method and the solution.”
“PICK@STOCK” is a Stocks Analysis Platform developed by a group of big data analysts and software engineers that lead under AFCTM. PICK@STOCK is a technology group focused on helping ordinary investors make better investment decisions, to become more professional method to making investing simpler for nearly anybody. The platform had widely adopted big data analytics architecture and the big data has also collided with artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning, the platform creating powerful tools for investors to utilize.
PICK@STOCK uses the "Keywords" features on the website as an idea on overall market sentiment to make it easier for users to find information about several individual stocks, sectors and industries. It provides space for investors and traders to get the trading ideas, news and other financial information in real-time. User watchlist to follow certain stocks or investors to gain valuable information as can create profiles and exchange ideas. The main feature of PICK@STOCK that is "stream" consists of trading ideas, stock charts, links and other financial data.
The purpose of this email is to make an appointment with you to discuss further what we can work up together to grow and expand your blog readers.
The Initial Collaboration Proposal:
1. AFCTM Provide Pick@Stock FREE Premium ID Access (worth RM699/year) to respective Blogger.
2. Contribute Articles & Allow Upload Features for the Blogger/Author to display articles on PICK@STOCK’s website
3. Promoting Blogger Page/Facebook page on PICK@STOCK website and get more “LIKE” or followers.
4. Free customization TA chart/FA or Mix Screener based on Blogger/Author trading strategy.
5. Provide the Private Community Forum (allow the followers/subscribers exchange the trading IDEA.)
6. Become PICK@STOCK reseller and get more than 50% referral commission for lifetime.
Please let us know your most convenient time to meet up on this coming few days. We’re excited about having you together, and we look forward to your new working relationship. Please let us know on this upcoming meeting if you need any additional information for moving forward. Please WhatsApp me any time +6013 3377810. wa.link/ezgym3
Thank you for your times, and hope you continue to stay healthy.
Best Regards,
Alex Tham
(AFCTM President Office 2019 - 2021)
Contact Num: +60 13-3377 810 (WhatsApp)
https://wa.me/message/PNPWWNUJI6LTF1
Association of Financial and Commodities Traders Malaysia. (PPM-030-14-25022014)
Association Website: http://www.afctm.org.my
Association E-mail: info@atfctm.org.my OR afctm2020@gmail.com
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