Election time but portfolio still the same...

As mentioned in several of my replies, I am not too concerned over the election and today the parliament has been dissolved. It is uncertainty period but in shares it has always been lots of uncertainties - just have to pick the right stocks.

I have updated my portfolio report, but just to say sorry that nothing has changed  over the last few months - just the price. I could not find much reasons to buy or sell. Over the last few weeks, I was looking for opportunities to buy a little bit of Time Dotcom to make up to 2,500 units as I am now owning 2,100 units. I however could not find the right price to buy them. It has now gone up further, hence gonna wait further.

Because of the position is full, I do not have much money left to buy. Of course, over the period I have mentioned of several good stocks which I may have bought - one of it Freight Management. Run out of money for the portfolio now though.

Over time, you may see me posting lesser and lesser as my point of view on stocks will always remain to be consistent while the universe of good Malaysian stocks is running out of my list to be mentioned. Again, if you found good ones, please do send me a note. I will try my best.

Why sell stocks???

A testament of how a poor seller I am, sometimes you cannot follow your heart when you sell.

Just a show of the stocks I sold in the portfolio. This year I sold 4 different stocks as in below.

Stocks I sold:

Genting - well sold it correctly I guess in the early part of the year. Now trading around RM9.20.
AEON - wrong move! Sold at RM9.02 and RM12.12. Now trading above RM14.00
Oldtown - Sold at RM2.20. Now trading above that price.
ICap - well sold at about the same price it is currently trading at, although I would have sold this stock anyway.

Lesson - do not be over eager to sell once you have found a good, well managed company. Stay with them for a longer period. Much more worth it this way.

Further purchase of NTPM

As part of my plan to increase my exposure in NTPM, I have bought an additional 6,200 units of the tissue and personal care products maker at RM0.435. Felt that there is further opportunity in NTPM's price being depressed by some Malaysian funds selling down.

This has caused my portfolio to be as follows.

A more detailed view of the performance can be viewed as in here 700 days after creating the fund.

As you can see, besides looking at value, the list of portfolio companies that I have chosen are winners in their own space:

1. DKSH - largest pure products (pharmaceutical, FMCG) distributor and market expansion company in Malaysia.
2. Wellcall - a rubber hose maker which does not really has competitive comparison in Malaysia. Its business however is mainly export though. It has steady income growth since its listing days. Very good dividends track record.
3. Time Dotcom - its largest competitor is Telekom Malaysia which is far bigger but I like TdC after the change in management as it is much focused into what it does. I believe in fiber as the medium for expanding communication.
4. Airasia - I do not need to say much besides I see this company as the leader and innovator in Asia's airline industry. Will face some stiff competition (which is normal) but being the largest and successful low costs carrier, I think it will be able to continue to grow.
5. Jobstreet - like the management and it is the leader in online job postings market in several South East Asian countries. Fantastic cashflows and amazingly still growing at a decent pace.
6. Padini - a growth company in the low to medium range fashion. Lots of competition but able to hold its own. With Asia being the place where the number middle class families will continue to grow at a furious pace, fashion will find its place if done correctly. Will have to find ways and means to grow beyond Malaysia though.
7. NTPM - main competitor - Kimberley-Clark and several others. Has held its own in Malaysian market by being the largest tissue products provider in the market. I like the way the management grow the company.
8. Airport - Malaysia Airport will see good growth. Competitors are the regional airports. Nevertheless, air travel will continue to grow at pace above average economic growth rates for the region.

Well, these are the basis for the portfolio companies in my investments moving into 2013 or even further as you can see these types of businesses are the ones which does not really depend on whether what happens to 2013, an election year or what if South East Asia has a slower growth next year.

Happy New Year and have a good year ahead!

Portfolio Update: 17 Aug 2012

Since the last update 2 months ago, stocks have gone substantially higher. For example, Wellcall has gone from RM1.90 to RM2.63. During the last 2 months, I have sold Oldtown at RM2.20 (see below). For Oldtown, I have made 90% over less than a year, buying it at RM1.15 and selling at RM2.20. During the period, it has paid 6.5% dividend as well. While comparatively against some of the consumer stocks it is still lower, I felt that the action of the major shareholders in trading the stocks may have affect it in the short run. Despite that, I still have much respect over their abilities to build the business to what it is today. Look around for the similar type of business, you will not be able to find a local franchise as strong as the one that they have built.

Anyway, here are the latest holdings, where I bought 2 shares ICap and Genting. Basically, these are the two stocks that did not enjoy such a run probably because of some of the reasons which I have highlighted earlier - Icap for its non-dividend payment while Genting has been lagging in terms of performance over the last year.

The total value of portfolio is about RM80,000 now.

Against Bursa Composite and Fixed Deposit, the performance of my small portfolio has beaten them over the last 1-1/2 year. If you look below, Bursa's Composite has done relatively well against Fixed Deposit - hence its proven do not bother about putting your money in the bank, as giving your money to your banker basically says you are asking your bank to make money for themselves using your money. Why should you? Even if you just follow the Composite stocks, you will do better over the long run.

With the sale of Oldtown, I have some RM14,627.07 in cash. So stay tuned.

Why I bought ICap

When I first started this new portfolio which I am going to call "Intellect Point Portfolio", I did say that it is going to be a small and long term portfolio for kids education. Started off with RM32,500, now it's NAV has exceeded RM60,000 after 1-1/2 year. The original intention is for this fund to continuously beat the market, that's it. Honestly, I do not expect it to perform so well, as I was going to take a very long term view of this fund. I have more than 15 years to go with this fund and most probably (hopefully) I am not going to touch it. This is not a retirement fund though.

With the sale of AEON few days ago, I have decided to buy 3,500 units of ICap at RM2.17 today.
 
Why do I buy ICap

Frankly, this is a much more careful purchase. Why?
(Hey, if I am wrong in this call, I can safely say Tan Theng Boo also wrong, mah! :) Hence the pressure off myself )

Besides that, first of all, it is undervalued. Yes, it is much easier (against any other businesses) to determine whether the closed-end fund is undervalued by virtue of its traded price against NAV. As at yesterday, ICap's NAV was RM2.95 while its traded price today which I have bought at is RM2.17, a whopping 26% discount from its NAV.

Secondly, the fund is sitting with cash. As at 29 Feb 2012, RM134 million is held in cash. This cash it is sitting on is higher than the RM115 million cash it was holding as at 31 May 2011, its last year-end closing. This shows that ICap has been a net seller of stocks (on top of the cash dividends they get). They are hence sitting on 1/3 with cash while the other 2/3 is invested. With the amount of cash they are sitting on, it shows that they probably are more careful than me. You see, the beauty of closed-end fund is that they are not susceptible to investors pulling out, hence the cash holding only shows that they are taking a little pessimistic view of things thinking that shares will drop in future - that's where they will buy.

With RM134 million in cash, this means that literally they are having RM0.957 in cash out of the traded price of RM2.17. Then, why is it that ICap is trading at such a discount? You can see that some shareholders are probably not patient. In shares investing, patience is a virtue. ICap has in fact been trading further apart from its NAV.

I can only speculate that since Icap has never issued any dividends, some investors just got tired of holding it for long term and sold. Most of them of course probably sold at a slight profit I believe, as RM2.17 to RM2.25 is probably the upper end of its historical traded price over the last 3 - 4 years. These investors just got tired and been selling.

What has changed since my last article.

If you have read it, over the last few months, ICap has just gotten a seal of approval from 2 decent-sized funds. See below. Both the funds - City of London Investment Management Company and Laxey Partners Limited are now holding more than 6% each of ICap - hence making it for first time ever ICap has a substantial shareholder (means more than 5% holdings).

This seal of approval is important as it shows that some decent sized funds are giving a seal of consent on trusting the managers of ICap to act on behalf of them. (Do Google these 2 funds to see whether these are very small or somewhat trusted funds)

I sincerely do not expect this fund to have a run as it is holding a substantial percentage in cash (except for the readjustment to its NAV). Hence from this is a very long term view as I do not expect dividend either.

What is my status on the "Intellect Point Portfolio" then.

No more cash, huh!


This is my personal view and is not representing an advice to the readers to buy or sell.

Position : 11 Jul 2012 and Sold some AEON

Over the last 1 month, Aberdeen Asset Management and EPF have been parring down some of their shares in AEON. Collectively, they owned almost 30% of the company while the holding company, AEON Ltd (which most probably will not sell) owns 51%. With the three shareholders, free float for AEON is actually very small, including some who owns the shares but held it for a very long time.

Some of the trading by substantial shareholders - AEON and EPF over last few days

I believe the reason for both Aberdeen and EPF in selling down their stocks are to take profit as their average entry costs was pretty low. At RM9.00, they would probably have easily made more than 75% gain assuming average entry costs was RM5.00. The tight holding is also not good for the stocks as it would make the trading of the counter very limited.

Frankly, I do not know what to expect of these 2 substantial shareholders in their future trading of the stocks but if you look below, the tight supply of the stocks is not healthy. (I somehow or rather have the feeling they may reduce their holdings though)

Due to that, I have decided to join in the fun in selling 800 units at RM9.02 in this portfolio I am holding, hence netting RM2,543.50 after commission and tax.

What is my position now?

Disclaimer: These are my own personal trades. If you do have made some purchases of these same stocks, they are entirely your own decision and should have come from your own analysis.

Portfolio Update - 18 June 2012

From the last update on 6 April 2012, there were no change in the portfolio. I still maintain the 4 stocks in the portfolio i.e. DKSH, AEON, Oldtown and Wellcall. I have also mentioned why I like these 4 stocks in the previous update.

I believe that if there are no necessity to change the holdings, don't change. In terms of performance, over the period of 507 days since the portfolio was created, it achieved a nice 81.88% return thumping the KLCI (4.11%) and Fixed Deposits at 3.2% fixed rate (4.23%).

You would have noticed that among the 4 stocks, the largest is AEON which only has a RM3.2 billion market capitalization. None of them are KLCI stocks. The other 3 are below RM1 billion stocks. If you follow my blog, this does not mean I do not like large cap stocks but to me sometimes these stocks are dominated by EPF which is the largest fund by far. Their action can move any stocks in Malaysia hence it is difficult to anticipate what their next move be like. Anyway, stocks that are invested by EPF or even Khazanah, although some of them are quality stocks are normally quite fully priced, I believe. I am not saying they are doing the wrong thing as it is not easy to manage a RM470billion fund than managing a RM50k personal fund.

Also, if you check around seldom analysts cover stocks such as DKSH, Wellcall or even Oldtown. In fact, I have read more sell calls for Oldtown than buy call which is rare. Analysts tend to have more buy calls than sell calls as by having sell calls they have nothing to "sell".

This portfolio is not for any reader to follow my call as these are purely my own decision and opinion. Any decisions to buy or sell is entirely up to you. The reason for me to do this is to show that by being diligent and if we have a certain program, stocks may be a better longer term investment than your safer bet of putting money in FD or under our bed. Some people may like gold, some may like properties - go ahead if you think is right. Just that I prefer stocks.

Earlier updates:

6 April 2012

27 May 2011 
6 April 2011
14 Feb 2011 
 

Bought Wellcall

Just bought 7,000 units of Wellcall today at RM1.52. (Name may not sound so nice but its a well managed company from the past records as we have seen. Who cares about name!) The purchase is due to I wanted a strong dividend income company in my portfolio. The purchase is gonna cost RM10,698.88 inclusive of trading costs.

The purchase is also due to I wanted to purchase a non-retail based stock, since owning Oldtown, DKSH and AEON.

The purchase was only made today with proceeds from sale of Genting. For those who would like to know more about Wellcall, check out my blog through this link.

Anyway, Wellcall is to send me a check for a 4 sen tax free dividend on 29 March as below.

 

Serious Investing!

Sold Genting

After some thoughts, I have decided to sell Genting at RM11.18. I believe that there are better and more attractive stocks to buy. A hint - now I am looking at a dotcom (not many out there in Malaysia that is making money) as its international investor is reducing its stake hence making the stock now rather attractive.

Here is the performance of my stocks investment after 1 year.

The performance of my investment against KLCI and if I put those cash in Fixed Deposits:

Serious Investing!

Sold Airasia and bought Oldtown

I just sold Airasia, basically took profit (made RM1,653.36) and bought 6,200 units of Oldtown.

Reason for doing so is that I have liked Oldtown in my previous writing. Now the price is below its IPO price of RM1.25 i.e. I bought at RM1.15 which is amazing as I get to buy much lower than the price I envisioned would have put my hands in - the latest quarterly report of 30 June 2011, I do not see any reasons for me to change my view on this coffee chain. It has built itself into a strong brand. Ironically I am selling a strong brand as well - Airasia.

Why I sold Airasia? If you previously read some of my blogs, while I like this airline, I could not comprehend the deal with MAS. Anything I am not very sure, well I do not like and this deal with MAS is big, although may benefit Airasia in the long run.

Anyway, Oldtown will bring much better cashflow than Airasia. Airasia is not a cashcow while Oldtown has a very good chance of building itself towards a cash cow. Hey! it just announced a 0.025 dividend - keep it up.

How does my investment position look like now?

Serious Investing!

Portfolio performance - 27 May 2011

My little portfolio did very well since its commencement on 28 January 2011 - exactly 4 months ago. Overall based on my comparison of performance against KLCI and Malaysian Fixed Deposit average of 3%, the portfolio's return of 29.77% over 4 months thumped the others.

The portfolio are as follow i.e. the stocks which I recommended. (FYI, I actually put real money into the stocks with intention to evaluate the performance of the stocks over a long period. Hence I am actually putting money where my mouth is)

Over the last 4 months I have realised some small profit taking some advantage of the fluctuations. Although these are not my most preferred method of investment, I may take profit to make investments a little bit exciting rather than buy and hold for a long time. Over time, we may want to pat our own back if we do well. These are the realised profits:

As we are moving towards the ending of the first quarter reporting period, all the 4 stocks that I hold has performed well financially which is the main basis of my investment. Although I do not want to elaborate here, basically these companies that I invested in (as in you would have read in my other pieces in the blog) are well run companies. Besides these few stocks, I am currently studying several other exciting stocks which I may want to put up over time.

Portfolio Position - 6 Apr 2011

After investing for less than 3 months (the first investment was done on 28 January 2011) and with RM27,500, here is the portfolio position (the below is a real portfolio): Remember, I was talking about putting in money for my child's education. Let's see whether we can do it. I am going to put in more cash into investments if the time is right for me to put in more or any of the stocks become attractive in terms of prices. During the period, I have sold twice and made RM677.90 (although the below table shows RM612.58, the actual profit is higher due to lower brokerage fee paid as compared to the reported table). Cash position stands at RM245.90.
Hence in effect, the profitability is as follows:

This blog is in effect to proof to those potential investors that with a small amount, you can still make a difference with the money you have. A caution though, while investments do provide better returns over a long period, it can be more volatile. Hence do not be let down if your investments do not return you as expected. More importantly, learn from mistakes and do your homework. Can be fun!

Serious Investing!